Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a31…cd21 other 76 markets active 9h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$88 (+0%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate28%21W / 55L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$11
other 16% +$66
politics 14% −$7
sports 2% +$38
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +9.4% -1.0% 21% 11% -8.2%
≤90d 61 +2.7% -7.1% 26% 16% -8.8%
all 76 +5.3% -4.7% 28% 16% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 16% -9.2%
10% -13.8% 14% -17.8%
15% -22.2% 14% -25.8%
20% -29.8% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses21 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage596d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $74 $0 +1%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $200 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $157 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 18 $9 +$8 +97%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $158 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $13 +$10 +76%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $151 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $152 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $147 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $157 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $146 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $159 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $310 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $145 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $153 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $158 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $296 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $144 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $148 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 +$10 +104%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 9h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 12h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $8 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 16d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $74 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 287 history records