Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5a2e…5f5d crypto 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,868 (-14%) realized −$1,799 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%43W / 66L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$267
sports 33% +$541
world 7% −$69
crypto 4% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 52% -7.6%
≤30d 109 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -7.8%
≤90d 109 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -7.8%
all 109 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 39% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 37% -16.6%
15% -37.2% 35% -24.7%
20% -43.3% 33% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$23 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$831
Realized−$1,799
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses43 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage8d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $900 $831 −$69 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,380 +$567 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $446 −$446 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $503 +$237 +47%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $506 −$39 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$16 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $600 −$600 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,108 +$243 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,007 +$14 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $300 −$186 -62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2,076 +$486 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$7 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$7 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 2¢ $77 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 61¢ $266 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 61¢ $665 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 54¢ $2,938 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $1,850 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $1,530 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 28¢ $98 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 28¢ $45 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $5 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $4 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $830.77 · official $830.77 (match) · 371 history records