Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a2d…ad4c world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,853 (-14%) realized −$1,854 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate75%39W / 13L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$126
14 days−$314
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$1,642
sports 21% +$479
other 15% −$772
economics 5% +$33
tech 1% +$13
crypto 0% +$5
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +38.1% +24.9% 100% 100% +24.6%
≤30d 14 +17.3% +6.2% 79% 57% -16.1%
≤90d 26 -5.7% -14.7% 62% 50% -15.8%
all 52 +3.3% -6.6% 75% 48% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 48% -22.7%
10% -15.5% 33% -30.1%
15% -23.7% 21% -36.9%
20% -31.2% 13% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$215 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$1,854
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses39 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage226d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 +$47 +46%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $134 +$46 +34%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $100 +$34 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $869 −$866 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $875 +$4 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 +$13 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $139 +$69 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,212 +$241 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$51 +250%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $220 +$2 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $230 +$96 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $1 $0 +35%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 04 $1 +$2 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 04 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 04 $20 +$6 +30%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $1,857 −$1,765 -95%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,779 −$23 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 25 $1 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $1,737 +$42 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $324 +$6 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 24 $178 +$7 +4%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Feb 24 $200 +$25 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $100 +$2 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $513 +$10 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $504 +$8 +2%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 02 $10 +$2 +19%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $1 $0 +31%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $100 +$13 +13%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jan 31 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $100 +$12 +12%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $20 +$1 +5%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $100 +$3 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $100 +$11 +11%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $300 +$33 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $126 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $148 11h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 11h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $180 15h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $134 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $100 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $368 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $864 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 77¢ $15 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $673 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1,212 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $139 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $20 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $220 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $230 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $14 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.95 · official $125.95 (match) · 124 history records