Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5A 0x5a2b…2f43 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$160 (+29%) realized +$162 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%6W / 2L

Drawdown23%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day5.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)-2.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+7.8%	-2.5%	75%	75%	+21.2%
≤30d	8	+7.8%	-2.5%	75%	75%	+21.2%
≤90d	8	+7.8%	-2.5%	75%	75%	+21.2%
all	8	+7.8%	-2.5%	75%	75%	+21.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.5%	75%	+21.2%
10%	-11.8%	62%	+9.6%
15%	-20.3%	38%	-1.0%
20%	-28.2%	25%	-10.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$20 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.83 per $1 lost it wins $4.83

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$96

Realized+$162

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses6 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage3d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day5.4

Drawdown23%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$98	$96	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$187	+$114	+61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$70	+$24	+34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$50	+$28	+56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$50	+$18	+36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$50	−$35	-70%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$6	+28%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$16	+$3	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$50	2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$50	9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	78¢	$37	17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$100	17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	80¢	$50	20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$20	23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$50	25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$50	45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	17¢	$15	45h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	72¢	$50	45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$50	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$20	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$18	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	82¢	$16	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.06 · official $96.08 (match) · 20 history records