Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5A 0x5a2a…ce84 sports 7 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,143 (-40%) realized −$28,143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,992per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$16,720
sports 22% −$12,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.5% -39.0% 43% 43% -46.7%
≤30d 7 -32.5% -39.0% 43% 43% -46.7%
≤90d 7 -32.5% -39.0% 43% 43% -46.7%
all 7 -32.5% -39.0% 43% 43% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.0% 43% -46.7%
10% ← realistic here -44.8% 43% -51.8%
15% -50.1% 29% -56.5%
20% -55.0% 29% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5,958 vs −$11,649 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28,143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9,992
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10,146 −$9,338 -92%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33,812 −$33,401 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $510 −$402 -79%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,007 +$273 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,010 +$519 +51%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3,544 −$3,454 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19,915 +$17,083 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 4¢ $808 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $4,600 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $2,083 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 42¢ $3,463 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $33,812 38h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 7¢ $95 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,280 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,529 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 34¢ $510 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,007 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1,010 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 13¢ $3,544 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 92¢ $36,998 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $19,915 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records