Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a25…1213 sports 190 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%25W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$2
politics 23% −$3
other 20% −$3
economics 9% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
world 5% $0
culture 4% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 4 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
all 190 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses25 / 165
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage168d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 26 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 18 $57 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 17 $53 $0 -1%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $47 $0 -1%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 12 $61 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 12 $182 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $158 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 08 $61 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 08 $113 $0 +0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 06 $234 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 06 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $204 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $58 −$1 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 28 $130 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 28 $135 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 28 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 28 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $44 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $44 6h
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $41 13d
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $42 14d
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $47 26d
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $48 26d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 91¢ $57 34d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 91¢ $57 34d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $59 96d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $60 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 95¢ $53 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $53 96d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $48 96d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $48 97d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $54 97d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $54 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $52 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $52 97d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 97d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 97d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 96¢ $51 97d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $51 98d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $48 98d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $48 98d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 98d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $32 98d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $16 98d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $55 98d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $56 98d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $59 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 696 history records