Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a24…be88 politics 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,578 (-1%) realized −$1,578 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,293per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$39
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$95
other 36% −$88
sports 13% −$1,510
culture 4% −$9
world 3% +$96
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 +9.3% -1.1% 15% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 75 +4.8% -5.2% 12% 7% -10.5%
all 143 -0.7% -10.2% 19% 10% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 10% -10.3%
10% -18.8% 10% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 10% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,695) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$30 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,578
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,293
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $259 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $2,804 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $277 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,010 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,732 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,445 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,138 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,288 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7,060 −$8 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $239 +$1 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,804 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,877 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,588 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $648 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $63 +$69 +109%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,291 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $52 +$69 +134%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $965 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $58 +$72 +124%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $976 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $612 +$1 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $360 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,727 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,092 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $749 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $878 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3,522 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,858 −$2 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $619 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $59 +$58 +97%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $364 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $365 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $258 19h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $259 21h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $370 22h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $371 25h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $450 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $451 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $366 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $367 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $637 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $638 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $203 4d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,427 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,429 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,299 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,301 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,481 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,483 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,443 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,445 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,561 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,563 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,286 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,288 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 445 history records