Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a24…1bab crypto 276 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%264W / 10L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$56
other 21% −$8
economics 5% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 57 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 274 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.85 per $1 lost it wins $4.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses264 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)274 / 276
History coverage253d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on July 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $162 $162 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on July 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 29? Jun 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 29? Jun 29 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 27? Jun 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 27? Jun 27 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 25? Jun 25 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 25? Jun 25 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on June 23? Jun 23 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 19? Jun 19 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 15? Jun 15 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? Jun 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 10? Jun 10 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 8? Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 6? Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $190 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $189 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $172 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $172 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? May 25 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 22 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 14? May 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on May 10? May 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 8? May 08 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 29? May 02 $188 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 21 $187 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 April 13-19? Apr 20 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 15 $186 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 6-12? Apr 13 $186 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $162 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $164 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $78 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $115 6d
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $191 9d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $186 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $192 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $192 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $154 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $38 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $52 21d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $114 22d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $5 23d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $5 23d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $5 23d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $5 23d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $5 23d
Will Solana reach $80 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $11 23d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $100 23d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $51 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $190 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $190 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $189 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $189 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.37 · official $193.37 (match) · 600 history records