Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a23…932a other 410 markets active 4h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+2%) realized +$86 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%132W / 248L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$27
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$128
sports 26% −$30
world 0% −$15
weather 0% −$10
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -53.2% -57.7% 19% 19% -22.1%
≤30d 50 -23.1% -30.5% 22% 22% -13.9%
≤90d 50 -23.1% -30.5% 22% 22% -13.9%
all 380 -6.5% -15.4% 35% 34% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 34% -7.0%
10% -23.5% 32% -15.9%
15% -30.9% 30% -24.1%
20% -37.6% 25% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses132 / 248
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions30
Markets (closed)380 / 410
History coverage207d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +232%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$3 +17%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$8 -67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -56%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$9 +131%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 $0 -4%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $2 +$26 +1247%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +38%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$13 +250%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $5 −$2 -37%
Spread: Nigeria (-1.5) Jun 03 $1 +$1 +91%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 45¢ $6 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 38¢ $4 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $5 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $6 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 31h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY New Zealand $1 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $11 33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 36h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 91¢ $28 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 38h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $20 38h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $5 40h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 46¢ $10 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 78¢ $19 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 60¢ $10 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $6 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $6 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.52 · official $80.46 (match) · 603 history records