Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a21…9318
weather · 512 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$162,567 +178%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,989 · open +$74,258
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$339,351
Realized−$2,989
Unrealized+$74,258
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses89 / 44
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions499
Markets (closed)133 / 512
Avg bet$178
Trades / day2668.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 499 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,989
7 days−$2,989
14 days−$2,989
30 days−$2,989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $18,997 $21,126 +$2,129 (+11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 89¢ 92¢ $20,418 $21,012 +$594 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $19,031 $19,101 +$70 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 59¢ 99¢ $6,721 $11,229 +$4,508 (+67%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 55¢ 81¢ $5,609 $8,281 +$2,672 (+48%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 75¢ $5,886 $6,527 +$641 (+11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 70¢ $4,216 $5,857 +$1,641 (+39%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 14¢ 60¢ $1,311 $5,512 +$4,201 (+320%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 13¢ 99¢ $709 $5,330 +$4,621 (+652%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 83¢ 97¢ $3,902 $4,590 +$689 (+18%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $6,345 $3,981 −$2,363 (-37%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $2,824 $3,433 +$608 (+22%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $3,393 $3,374 −$19 (-1%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 87¢ 98¢ $2,928 $3,314 +$385 (+13%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 88¢ 99¢ $2,920 $3,302 +$382 (+13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 80¢ 86¢ $2,774 $2,995 +$221 (+8%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $2,553 $2,952 +$399 (+16%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,768 $2,815 +$47 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 30¢ 22¢ $3,719 $2,814 −$905 (-24%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 89¢ 99¢ $2,359 $2,626 +$267 (+11%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $1,986 $2,388 +$402 (+20%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? No 79¢ 100¢ $1,862 $2,356 +$494 (+27%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 44¢ 80¢ $1,254 $2,282 +$1,028 (+82%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? No 79¢ 96¢ $1,757 $2,153 +$396 (+23%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 92¢ $123 $2,138 +$2,015 (+1639%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2,003 −$974 -49%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $163 −$104 -64%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $166 −$124 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 +$11 +1925%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +375%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $571 +$198 +35%
Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a player representing Egypt be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a player representing Morocco be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 12 $74 −$54 -73%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 12 $13 −$11 -81%
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? Jun 12 $192 −$42 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 12 $105 −$15 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -76%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Jun 12 $9 −$5 -61%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -64%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 12 $9 −$6 -70%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $189 +$144 +76%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $339 −$46 -14%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $339 −$46 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$29 +507%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3% Jun 12 $14 +$6 +45%
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $358 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$60 +1260%
Will Washington Nationals win the 2026 National League Championship Se Jun 12 $475 +$4 +1%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $782 −$765 -98%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$64 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $56 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $63 +$57 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 −$69 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $119 −$83 -69%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $167 −$135 -80%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $13 +$7 +49%
Will annual inflation be 4.5% in June? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $120 −$33 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$62 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% +$63,178
tech 17% +$131
weather 4% +$2,051
world 3% −$1,973
crypto 2% +$524
politics 2% +$2,756
finance 2% +$516
sports 2% +$3,022
economics 1% −$91
culture 1% +$1,156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $60 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 78¢ $236 0m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $224 0m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $66 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $112 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 19¢ $22 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $38 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $184 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 81¢ $94 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 81¢ $155 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 59¢ $20 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 86¢ $30 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 90¢ $32 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 78¢ $28 2m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 78¢ $76 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 59¢ $56 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 86¢ $83 4m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 90¢ $88 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 81¢ $114 4m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $136 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 87¢ $44 4m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $38 4m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 79¢ $16 5m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+127.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +150.9% +127.0% 67% 38% -33.4%
≤30d 133 +150.9% +127.0% 67% 38% -33.4%
≤90d 133 +150.9% +127.0% 67% 38% -33.4%
all 133 +150.9% +127.0% 67% 38% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2668.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +127.0% 38% -33.4%
10% ← realistic here +105.3% 34% -39.7%
15% +85.4% 32% -45.6%
20% +67.3% 27% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339,351.28 · official $375,887.67 · 3500 history records