Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:56:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a1e…5a6e crypto 1570 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$169 (+1%) realized +$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate82%1288W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$80
14 days+$149
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -1.7% -11.1% 82% 66% -1.3%
≤30d 622 -0.5% -10.0% 85% 61% -10.1%
≤90d 1570 +1.5% -8.2% 82% 59% -9.8%
all 1570 +1.5% -8.2% 82% 59% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 59% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 25% -18.5%
15% -25.0% 8% -26.3%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1288 / 282
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1570 / 1570
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1570 Trades
no open positions (167 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records