Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a1e…4d00 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+7%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day60.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$6
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -13.0% -21.3% 66% 44% -1.6%
≤30d 32 -13.0% -21.3% 66% 44% -1.6%
≤90d 32 -13.0% -21.3% 66% 44% -1.6%
all 32 -13.0% -21.3% 66% 44% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 44% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 25% -11.0%
15% -35.7% 19% -19.6%
20% -42.0% 16% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records