Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a1e…6f16 sports 883 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$430 (+1%) realized +$430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%451W / 432L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$368
7 days−$1,097
14 days−$1,847
30 days−$2,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$586
crypto 20% −$788
other 6% +$232
world 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -32.9% -39.3% 48% 36% -37.2%
≤30d 471 -15.5% -23.6% 52% 47% -24.3%
≤90d 747 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 44% -19.9%
all 883 -6.6% -15.5% 51% 47% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -9.4%
10% -23.6% 40% -18.1%
15% -31.0% 34% -26.0%
20% -37.7% 28% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$26 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses451 / 432
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)883 / 883
History coverage161d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 883 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$23 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$7 +32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 +$3 +13%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $127 −$116 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $187 −$180 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $186 −$185 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -51%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $20 +$12 +59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $136 +$37 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $140 +$7 +5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$276 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $47 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 85¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2211 history records