Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a1e…21a1 sports 797 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 163d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,146 (-4%) realized −$3,145 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%454W / 338L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$101
14 days−$23
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$2,081
other 21% −$163
world 9% −$21
politics 2% −$74
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -29.3% -36.0% 0% 0% -36.0%
≤30d 17 +2.6% -7.2% 53% 41% -7.6%
≤90d 117 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 29% -11.7%
all 792 -1.7% -11.1% 57% 37% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 37% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 23% -20.9%
15% -27.4% 14% -28.5%
20% -34.5% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$3,145
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses454 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions4
Markets (closed)792 / 797
History coverage163d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $346 −$101 -29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +127%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $7 −$1 -17%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $681 +$66 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $216 +$46 +21%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $247 −$31 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 +$7 +47%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 +$2 +41%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $291 +$24 +8%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $21 −$1 -4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $87 +$9 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Shelton May 09 $10 $0 -3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev May 09 $23 −$3 -12%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $21 +$2 +10%
Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5 May 08 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $28 +$10 +37%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes end in a draw? May 08 $2 −$1 -71%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $38 +$2 +6%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score Apr 21 $5 +$3 +54%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 −$4 -84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $12 −$1 -13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 $0 -23%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? Apr 19 $22 −$1 -2%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $2 +$1 +27%
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton Apr 19 $6 +$1 +24%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Apr 19 $9 +$2 +25%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez Apr 17 $71 −$1 -2%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-02-02? Apr 17 $7 +$7 +103%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $6 +$2 +39%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 15 $3 +$3 +95%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Machac vs Jannik Sinner Apr 09 $266 +$4 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $43 +$15 +35%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Machac Apr 08 $10 −$7 -68%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Zverev Apr 08 $57 −$16 -27%
Daniil Medvedev vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $7 −$1 -18%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 08 $14 −$7 -52%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $17 +$13 +75%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $5 −$2 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 43m
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $36 48m
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $38 57m
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 1h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $91 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $142 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $244 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 38¢ $3 8d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $2 9d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 41¢ $2 9d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 34¢ $1 9d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 71¢ $1 9d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 81¢ $2 9d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 27¢ $2 9d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 23¢ $1 9d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 27¢ $2 9d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 50¢ $3 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $214 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $129 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $2 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $292 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $262 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $216 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $216 11d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $2 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $247 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $249 12d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 40¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.88 · official $238.88 (match) · 3500 history records