Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a1d…6238 sports 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 740d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%95W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$58
14 days+$170
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$81
other 14% −$38
crypto 2% −$6
tech 1% −$14
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +15.9% +4.8% 82% 55% +3.4%
≤30d 27 +16.7% +5.6% 89% 59% +5.7%
≤90d 37 +12.5% +1.8% 86% 65% +1.9%
all 133 -2.9% -12.1% 71% 53% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 53% -8.1%
10% -20.6% 36% -16.9%
15% -28.2% 20% -24.9%
20% -35.3% 12% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

740d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses95 / 38
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage740d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $75 +$8 +11%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $68 +$6 +10%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $67 +$1 +2%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $32 +$34 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $26 +$6 +23%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $23 +$5 +20%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $22 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $27 −$27 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $24 +$23 +93%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $25 $0 -2%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan Jun 10 $128 +$7 +5%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $91 +$36 +39%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $56 +$35 +63%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $60 −$2 -3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $58 +$1 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $40 +$11 +28%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $42 +$5 +12%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $30 +$9 +30%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 08 $29 +$4 +14%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 08 $28 +$1 +4%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 08 $25 +$3 +11%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 08 $2 $0 +21%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $3 $0 +3%
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 08 $3 $0 +11%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin Apr 29 $19 +$5 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $18 −$17 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Apr 21 $1 $0 +28%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $1 $0 +32%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 21 $2 $0 +18%
Pistons vs. Nets Apr 21 $2 $0 +20%
Wizards vs. Pelicans Apr 21 $2 +$1 +27%
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 21 $2 +$1 +28%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Apr 21 $2 +$1 +35%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $16 +$5 +33%
Kigali: Joel Schwaerzler vs Stefano Napolitano Mar 08 $13 +$4 +29%
Kigali: Stefano Napolitano vs Luka Mikrut Mar 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Antalya 2: Alina Charaeva vs Polina Kudermetova Mar 04 $20 +$4 +20%
Antalya 2: Ipek Oz vs Katarina Zavatska Mar 04 $12 +$8 +61%
Antalya 2: Tamara Zidansek vs Veronika Erjavec Mar 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Wizards vs. Pistons Feb 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Ducks Feb 05 $1 $0 +35%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Feb 05 $2 +$1 +28%
Suns vs. Warriors Feb 05 $5 +$5 +96%
Rockets vs. Kings Dec 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Nets Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $75 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $75 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 91¢ $68 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $68 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 97¢ $67 2h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 48¢ $32 11h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 81¢ $26 4d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 83¢ $23 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $22 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 99¢ $22 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 89¢ $20 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $27 5d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 51¢ $24 6d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra SELL Caty McNally 86¢ $25 6d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 87¢ $25 6d
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan BUY Dominika Salkova 95¢ $128 7d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 92¢ $127 7d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 65¢ $91 7d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens SELL Anastasia Potapova 100¢ $91 7d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Anastasia Potapova 61¢ $56 7d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel SELL Hanne Vandewinkel 70¢ $58 8d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 71¢ $60 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 98¢ $58 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 78¢ $40 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 89¢ $42 9d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 82¢ $39 9d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $30 9d
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova BUY Tatiana Prozorova 87¢ $29 9d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 96¢ $28 9d
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas SELL Liam Broady 100¢ $28 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 258 history records