Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a1c…49c1
other · 78 markets active 9d ago
0.0score
−$564 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,646 · open −$3,024
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30,961
Realized+$1,646
Unrealized−$3,024
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)67 / 78
History coverage42d
Avg bet$1,075
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 11 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,004
30 days+$1,538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 66¢ 80¢ $19,905 $24,214 +$4,309 (+22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 47¢ 56¢ $3,425 $4,021 +$596 (+17%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 85¢ 61¢ $2,440 $1,747 −$693 (-28%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $7,655 $370 −$7,285 (-95%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 84¢ $199 $347 +$148 (+75%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $206 $228 +$23 (+11%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $47 $20 −$26 (-57%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $96 $5 −$91 (-95%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$4 (-64%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+43%)
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Kash Patel out by May 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $139 +$4 +3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $57 −$32 -56%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,371 +$214 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $2,891 +$108 +4%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? May 30 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 30 $1,413 +$59 +4%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-26? May 30 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 30 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $357 −$357 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 30 $296 −$273 -92%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 30 $24 −$9 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $10,468 +$3,806 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 27 $471 +$95 +20%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$118 +766%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $153 −$33 -22%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $58 −$28 -49%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 24 $22 +$9 +39%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $36 +$39 +109%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $530 +$143 +27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,334 +$177 +8%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $325 +$780 +240%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22? May 23 $2,990 −$2,612 -87%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $467 +$533 +114%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 18 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $16 $0 +2%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $172 −$77 -45%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $403 +$24 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% +$8,703
politics 18% −$10,566
other 17% +$209
tech 4% +$74
sports 1% +$106
crypto 1% +$99
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $466 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $763 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $100 8d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 11d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $5 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $4 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $31 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $36 11d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $23 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $350 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $4 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $22 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $700 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $702 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $14 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $5 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $510 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $4 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $138 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $2 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $2 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $92 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $18 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $164 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $24 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $415 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $84 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 54 +14.4% +3.5% 41% 20% -19.4%
≤90d 67 +10.5% -0.0% 43% 27% -17.8%
all 67 +10.5% -0.0% 43% 27% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 27% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 22% -25.6%
15% -18.3% 18% -32.8%
20% -26.3% 16% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,961.01 · official $30,961.04 (match) · 1450 history records