Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a19…0ac4 other 19 markets active 5h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$152 (-19%) realized −$151 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$172
14 days−$172
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$131
sports 30% −$31
world 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -42.0% -47.5% 42% 42% -40.7%
≤30d 14 -36.5% -42.6% 43% 43% -40.2%
≤90d 14 -36.5% -42.6% 43% 43% -40.2%
all 14 -36.5% -42.6% 43% 43% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 43% -40.2%
10% -48.1% 29% -45.9%
15% -53.1% 21% -51.2%
20% -57.7% 7% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$31 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage92d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $105 $99 −$5 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $37 $48 +$11 (+28%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $37 +$4 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$14 -66%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 14 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $42 +$18 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $33 +$17 +52%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $88 +$12 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $49 +$21 +42%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 28 $6 −$2 -43%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 28 $4 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $55 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 83¢ $41 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $9 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 30h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $31 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $29 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $52 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $42 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $33 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $79 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 4d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 88¢ $88 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $49 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 20d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.97 · official $193.97 (match) · 52 history records