Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a18…f689
politics · 61 markets active 865d ago
0.0score
+$420,554 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$420,554 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$420,554
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses42 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 61
History coverage320d
Avg bet$80,567
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 0 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,973
7 days−$2,973
14 days−$2,973
30 days−$2,973
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WIF listed on Coinbase or Binance? No 68¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? No 49¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $0 +$1,992 +7692238%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $0 −$2,128 -23383972%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $0 −$2,837 -13772341%
Will Paul Giamatti win the Oscar for Best Actor? Jan 29 $182 $0 -0%
Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor? Jan 29 $961 −$47 -5%
CZ jail before March? Jan 29 $539 +$9 +2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? Jan 28 $911 −$41 -4%
Will Jim Harbaugh be the next head coach of the Michigan Wolverines? Jan 28 $350 +$150 +43%
WIF listed on Coinbase or Binance? Jan 23 $163 −$13 -8%
Will Trump appear on Maine primary ballot? Jan 23 $281 −$47 -17%
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% Jan 21 $2,121 −$220 -10%
Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March? Jan 21 $707 $0 +0%
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 12.5-15% Jan 21 $579 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 21 $5,699 −$311 -6%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 21 $13,524 −$190 -1%
UFC 297: Will Strickland win by finish? Jan 21 $456 +$196 +43%
BTC ETFs first week combined AUM under $10 billion? Jan 21 $55,605 +$929 +2%
NY-3 Special Election for Santos seat: Suozzi (D) vs. Pilip (R) Jan 20 $1,682 $0 -0%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? Jan 20 $697 −$48 -7%
Will Spirit Airlines announce bankruptcy by Jan 31? Jan 20 $17 −$8 -46%
Will Sweden join NATO by February 29? Jan 20 $152 −$11 -7%
LayerZero airdrop by April? Jan 19 $1,204 −$60 -5%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31? Jan 19 $1,861 +$56 +3%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31? Jan 19 $1,246 +$56 +4%
Will there be a US government shutdown by Jan 20? Jan 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? Jan 19 $22 −$10 -46%
Will Ecuadorian drug lord Fito remain at large throughout January? Jan 19 $24 −$6 -25%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 19 $16,116 −$195 -1%
Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? Jan 16 $273,965 +$296 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? Jan 16 $100,100 +$100 +0%
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? Jan 13 $40,831 +$10,183 +25%
Who will get more votes in Taiwan Election: Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) or Ko Wen- Jan 13 $13,572 +$8,568 +63%
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win? Jan 13 $40,000 −$40,000 -100%
Was @SECGov really hacked? Jan 13 $210,339 +$253 +0%
Will the final global heat increase be 1.05 or greater for 2023? Jan 12 $227,842 +$10,171 +4%
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher Jan 12 $168,785 +$27,416 +16%
Will the final global heat increase be 1.08 or greater for 2023? Jan 12 $184,345 +$10,787 +6%
Will the final global heat increase be 1.13 or greater for 2023? Jan 12 $40,640 +$452 +1%
Will the final global heat increase be 1.11 or greater for 2023? Jan 12 $68,696 +$1,953 +3%
SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10? Jan 12 $177,896 +$10,657 +6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $110,921 +$3,946 +4%
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? Jan 11 $1,869,534 +$266,187 +14%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $11,286 +$31,122 +276%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? Nov 02 $61,036 +$61 +0%
Will SBF testify? Oct 31 $4,807 +$473 +10%
Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31? Oct 24 $85,354 +$105 +0%
Logan Paul vs. Dillon Danis Oct 15 $6,601 +$1,304 +20%
Will there be widespread flooding in LA? Aug 25 $13,373 +$13 +0%
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? Aug 11 $11,252 +$3,959 +35%
Another North Korea missile test by July 31? Jul 30 $820 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 43% +$277,531
other 43% +$112,121
politics 7% +$53,102
world 5% −$21,086
sports 1% +$1,983
tech 0% −$78
culture 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paul Giamatti win the Oscar for Best Actor? SELL No 73¢ $182 865d
Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor? SELL Yes 69¢ $914 865d
CZ jail before March? SELL No 60¢ $548 865d
WIF listed on Coinbase or Binance? SELL No 70¢ $82 871d
Will Trump appear on Maine primary ballot? SELL No 5¢ $234 871d
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% SELL No 50¢ $1,218 872d
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% SELL No 50¢ $70 873d
Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March? SELL Yes 63¢ $707 873d
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 12.5-15% SELL No 83¢ $579 873d
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? SELL No 86¢ $5,214 873d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? SELL No 90¢ $13,333 873d
NY-3 Special Election for Santos seat: Suozzi (D) vs. Pilip (R) SELL Suozzi 81¢ $196 874d
NY-3 Special Election for Santos seat: Suozzi (D) vs. Pilip (R) SELL Suozzi 81¢ $1,000 874d
NY-3 Special Election for Santos seat: Suozzi (D) vs. Pilip (R) SELL Suozzi 81¢ $486 874d
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? SELL No 41¢ $649 874d
Will Spirit Airlines announce bankruptcy by Jan 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 874d
Will Sweden join NATO by February 29? SELL Yes 15¢ $21 874d
BTC ETFs first week combined AUM under $10 billion? BUY No 100¢ $6,655 874d
LayerZero airdrop by April? SELL Yes 38¢ $679 874d
Will Sweden join NATO by February 29? SELL Yes 17¢ $120 874d
Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? SELL No 55¢ $700 874d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31? SELL No 49¢ $7 874d
Will there be a US government shutdown by Jan 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 874d
LayerZero airdrop by April? SELL Yes 38¢ $464 874d
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 874d
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? SELL No 87¢ $174 874d
Will Ecuadorian drug lord Fito remain at large throughout January? SELL No 9¢ $18 874d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31? SELL No 36¢ $1 874d
Tether Insolvent in 2024? SELL No 90¢ $15,921 874d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31? SELL No 44¢ $88 874d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+73.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 64 +91.8% +73.6% 66% 25% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.6% 25% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here +57.0% 16% -11.5%
15% +41.8% 11% -20.1%
20% +27.9% 6% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.00 (match) · 1286 history records