Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a13…588f
other · 46 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$757 -35%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$760 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$336
Realized−$760
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage266d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 1 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$589
7 days−$538
14 days−$538
30 days−$538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $333 $336 +$3 (+1%)
US government shutdown by October 1? No 34¢ 0¢ $168 $0 −$168 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during "60 Minutes" on November 2? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Through the roof" during Hungary PM events on November 7? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Hungary PM events on November 7? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29? No 34¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $145 −$12 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $328 −$203 -62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 −$81 -79%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $18 +$7 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $69 −$5 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $212 −$193 -91%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$33 -73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$26 +168%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 +$44 +43%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$24 +474%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29? Nov 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 29 $25 $0 +0%
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31? Nov 29 $3 $0 -0%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30? Nov 25 $9 +$19 +207%
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files? Nov 18 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 18 $17 −$11 -63%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20? Nov 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Nov 16 $19 −$2 -11%
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31? Nov 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 12 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Trump say "Through the roof" during Hungary PM events on November Nov 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during C5+1 Summit on November 6? Nov 06 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during C5+1 Summit on November 6? Nov 06 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Critical Mineral" during C5+1 Summit o Nov 06 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum Nov 05 $28 +$23 +84%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Hungary PM events on Novem Nov 03 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Nov 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during "60 Minutes" on November 2 Nov 03 $1 +$9 +900%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during "60 Minutes" on November 2? Nov 01 $2 −$2 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 30 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 30 $51 −$18 -34%
US government shutdown in 2025? Sep 29 $84 −$33 -39%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Sep 29 $25 −$2 -7%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Sep 29 $25 +$35 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 76% −$531
politics 20% −$217
crypto 2% +$22
world 2% −$29
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $222 19m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $115 26m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $114 26m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $124 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $125 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $87 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $241 22h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $64 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $12 24h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 73¢ $18 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $62 28h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 28h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $122 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $69 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 43h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -8.2% -17.0% 20% 20% -48.9%
≤30d 20 -8.2% -17.0% 20% 20% -48.9%
≤90d 20 -8.2% -17.0% 20% 20% -48.9%
all 45 +6.3% -3.8% 22% 20% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 20% -47.8%
10% -13.0% 20% -52.8%
15% -21.4% 20% -57.3%
20% -29.1% 16% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.91 · official $335.91 (match) · 110 history records