Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5A 0x5a12…af17 politics 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$2
politics 41% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 33% -5.4%
≤90d 3 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 33% -5.4%
all 8 +2.8% -7.0% 62% 12% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 12% -7.9%
10% -15.9% 0% -16.7%
15% -24.0% 0% -24.7%
20% -31.5% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage128d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 21 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H Mar 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Mar 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats Mar 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? Feb 12 $112 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 26d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 0¢ $26 29d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 0¢ $22 29d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H SELL Yes 0¢ $38 92d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H BUY Yes 0¢ $38 92d
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next SELL Yes 0¢ $36 97d
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $36 97d
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats SELL Yes 0¢ $36 101d
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats BUY Yes 0¢ $36 101d
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? SELL Yes 0¢ $33 104d
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? BUY Yes 0¢ $33 104d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? SELL No 59¢ $38 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? BUY No 58¢ $38 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? SELL No 59¢ $38 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? BUY No 58¢ $38 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? SELL No 58¢ $38 128d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? BUY No 57¢ $37 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.94 · official $41.94 (match) · 21 history records