Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a12…af7f world 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$6
other 28% +$4
sports 20% −$7
politics 9% −$2
economics 8% −$2
finance 2% −$1
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.2% 56% 11% -8.5%
≤30d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 5% -10.2%
≤90d 38 -0.6% -10.1% 34% 3% -9.8%
all 48 -5.9% -14.9% 38% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 4% -10.2%
10% -23.0% 2% -18.8%
15% -30.5% 2% -26.6%
20% -37.3% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage527d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 90¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $45 +$3 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $52 −$10 -20%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $71 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $66 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $226 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $226 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $249 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $227 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $10 −$2 -16%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $228 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $232 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 06 $1 $0 +6%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
St. John's vs. Villanova Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on January 24? Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Eagles beat the Commanders by 7 or more points? Feb 05 $4 +$4 +113%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 23 $3 −$2 -82%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 22 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 15m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $6 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $24 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $8 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $17 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $30 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $30 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $28 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $13 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records