Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5a11…6a43 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$44 (+17%) realized +$38 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +1.0% -8.6% 69% 45% +5.6%
≤30d 29 +1.0% -8.6% 69% 45% +5.6%
≤90d 29 +1.0% -8.6% 69% 45% +5.6%
all 29 +1.0% -8.6% 69% 45% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 45% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 38% -4.5%
15% -25.3% 21% -13.7%
20% -32.7% 10% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 0¢ 56¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$23 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $13 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.17 · official $5.61 (match) · 102 history records