trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +5.6% | -4.5% | 100% | 0% | -4.5% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +5.6% | -4.5% | 100% | 0% | -4.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 70% | 10% | -11.7% |
| all | 10 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 70% | 10% | -11.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.5% | 10% | -11.7% |
| 10% | -23.6% | 0% | -20.2% |
| 15% | -31.0% | 0% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -37.8% | 0% | -35.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 62¢ | 61¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 25 | $28 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | May 21 | $27 | $0 | +2% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 19 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 17? | May 19 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 15? | May 16 | $26 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | May 15 | $24 | −$1 | -4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | May 13 | $5 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will XRP dip to $1.40 on April 21? | Apr 21 | $8 | −$7 | -96% |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Apr 21 | $4 | +$1 | +19% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Apr 21 | $7 | $0 | +0% |