Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5A 0x5a10…cd65 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1
tech 26% +$1
crypto 16% −$7
weather 12% $0
world 6% +$1
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.6% -4.5% 100% 0% -4.5%
≤30d 1 +5.6% -4.5% 100% 0% -4.5%
≤90d 10 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 10% -11.7%
all 10 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 10% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 10% -11.7%
10% -23.6% 0% -20.2%
15% -31.0% 0% -27.9%
20% -37.8% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage96d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 25 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $27 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 17? May 19 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 15? May 16 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $24 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 13 $5 +$1 +9%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 on April 21? Apr 21 $8 −$7 -96%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Apr 21 $4 +$1 +19%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.69 · official $29.69 (match) · 23 history records