Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a0d…40ca sports 282 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$682 (-0%) realized −$680 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate78%218W / 63L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$721est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$916
7 days+$1,191
14 days+$2,778
30 days−$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,420
other 9% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +16.7% +5.6% 94% 69% -2.0%
≤30d 80 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 59% -10.0%
≤90d 281 +1.3% -8.4% 78% 62% -10.4%
all 281 +1.3% -8.4% 78% 62% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 62% -10.4%
10% -17.1% 40% -19.0%
15% -25.1% 23% -26.8%
20% -32.5% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$411 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized−$680
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses218 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$721
Open positions1
Markets (closed)281 / 282
History coverage82d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $471 $469 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $1,899 +$195 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $3,253 +$300 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $82 +$68 +83%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $1,007 +$121 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $3,004 +$153 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $355 +$56 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $298 +$59 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $78 +$19 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $231 +$47 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $554 +$179 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,212 +$553 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $816 −$812 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $269 +$46 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $736 +$30 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $336 +$154 +46%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $2,190 +$136 +6%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,594 +$663 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $2,295 +$1,481 +64%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $699 −$692 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,193 −$3,177 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,017 +$172 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $608 −$600 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,983 +$1,642 +83%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,691 −$1,670 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2,998 +$679 +23%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,934 −$2,912 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $597 +$340 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $403 −$397 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $298 +$31 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $332 −$330 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $4,090 +$209 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,892 +$204 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2,205 +$186 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $132 −$131 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2,532 +$446 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $794 +$346 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $99 +$54 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $99 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,453 +$320 +22%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $45 +$5 +11%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $33 +$13 +38%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $30 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 +$3 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $4,149 +$471 +11%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $54 +$22 +40%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2,201 +$939 +43%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $2,219 +$876 +40%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $65 +$35 +55%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $297 −$294 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $202 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $273 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $794 7h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 92¢ $501 9h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $603 9h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 81¢ $101 10h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $1,748 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $82 22h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $1,506 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $97 33h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $910 33h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $3,004 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $355 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $298 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $78 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $231 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $554 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,212 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $313 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $269 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $236 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $84 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2,190 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1,594 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $3,776 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 1¢ $8 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 80¢ $699 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.01 · official $469.01 (match) · 668 history records