trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 73¢ | 69¢ | $53 | $50 | −$3 (-5%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $17 | $17 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 89¢ | 89¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June | Jun 13 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$1 | -28% |
| Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $3 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? | Jun 10 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 10? | Jun 10 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 10 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 10? | Jun 10 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 9? | Jun 09 | $24 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 8? | Jun 08 | $75 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? | Jun 08 | $75 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? | Jun 07 | $110 | +$5 | +4% |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Jun 07 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $7 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 6? | Jun 06 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 5? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 19 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 68% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤30d | 21 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 71% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 71% | 0% | -8.3% |
| all | 21 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 71% | 0% | -8.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -8.3% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 0% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -25.1% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -32.4% |