Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a09…6f92
other · 115 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$31 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses55 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage521d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 2 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+415%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+242%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $156 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $124 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $109 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $106 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $132 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $51 +$3 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $10 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $26 −$2 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $19 +$4 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $39 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $36 +$14 +39%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 +15%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $231 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $231 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 12 $18 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 11 $1 $0 -18%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Fuck" this week? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% +$21
other 20% $0
politics 14% −$1
economics 8% $0
sports 4% +$7
weather 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $35 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $16 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $50 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $40 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $21 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $60 11h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $19 15h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $41 15h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $1 18h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $39 18h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $19 18h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $8 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $4 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $37 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $10 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $58 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +151.2% +127.3% 50% 25% -9.0%
≤30d 30 +63.1% +47.5% 50% 20% -8.1%
≤90d 36 +52.6% +38.0% 50% 17% -8.5%
all 113 +19.2% +7.8% 49% 12% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 12% -8.6%
10% -2.5% 7% -17.3%
15% -11.9% 6% -25.3%
20% -20.6% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 402 history records