Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5A 0x5a08…ebdc sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$158 (-15%) realized −$204 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$41
14 days−$41
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -83.1% -84.7% 0% 0% -84.7%
≤30d 2 +33.1% +20.4% 50% 50% +61.4%
≤90d 2 +33.1% +20.4% 50% 50% +61.4%
all 18 -20.2% -27.8% 33% 33% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 33% -24.5%
10% -34.7% 28% -31.7%
15% -41.0% 28% -38.3%
20% -46.8% 28% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$35 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage107d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 45¢ 56¢ $181 $228 +$46 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $49 −$41 -83%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $111 +$166 +149%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Mar 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO1) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 25 $98 −$64 -66%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group S Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs DOGSENT - Game 2 Winner Mar 19 $30 −$2 -6%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Mar 19 $106 −$54 -51%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $32 +$22 +69%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $21 +$13 +59%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $33 −$18 -54%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Mar 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Mar 17 $30 +$35 +117%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $25 −$18 -71%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 14 $9 +$17 +194%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 14 $69 +$10 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $184 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL Enjoy 9¢ $8 3d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 51¢ $49 3d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 99¢ $278 22d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 39¢ $111 22d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO1) - ESL One Birmingham Group A BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $32 96d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO1) - ESL One Birmingham Group A SELL BetBoom Team 37¢ $33 96d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO1) - ESL One Birmingham Group A BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $65 96d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 71¢ $28 102d
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs DOGSENT - Game 2 Winner SELL Nemiga Gaming 66¢ $28 102d
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs DOGSENT - Game 2 Winner BUY Nemiga Gaming 70¢ $30 102d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group S BUY Ivory 34¢ $20 102d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY DOGSENT 51¢ $52 103d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL Ilbirs eSports 56¢ $52 103d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Ilbirs eSports 58¢ $54 103d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) SELL Liverpool FC 98¢ $54 103d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) BUY Liverpool FC 58¢ $32 103d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 0¢ $2 103d
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $34 103d
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 63¢ $21 103d
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Shpilit 13¢ $15 103d
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Shpilit 29¢ $33 103d
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) BUY FK Bodø/Glimt 56¢ $60 104d
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 50¢ $46 104d
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY DOGSENT 46¢ $30 105d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL Team Spirit 11¢ $7 107d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 38¢ $25 107d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $25 107d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 34¢ $9 107d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY Everton FC 57¢ $70 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.72 · official $219.70 · 40 history records