Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:57:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a08…7ff5
other · 569 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$2,083 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,086 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$82
Realized−$2,086
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses281 / 278
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)559 / 569
History coverage230d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 10 History 559 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$6
14 days+$2
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? No 50¢ 40¢ $26 $21 −$6 (-21%)
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 69¢ 96¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+39%)
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 53¢ 99¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+87%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? No 64¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? No 83¢ 81¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 63¢ 57¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 75¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 30¢ 43¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? No 36¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? No 43¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? No 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? No 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? No 63¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8? No 87¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? No 88¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? No 90¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? No 84¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? No 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? No 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? No 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open? No 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? No 28¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +12%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $7 +$8 +124%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +112%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$9 +100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 08 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $12 +$1 +9%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -97%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $6 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $8 +$1 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +10%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +34%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 31 $8 −$4 -52%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $8 +$5 +67%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $3 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $4 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $12 +$2 +13%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 30 $4 +$1 +25%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 29 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5 +$11 +214%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 28 $5 $0 +10%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 28 $6 +$2 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $6 +$3 +52%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 28 $6 +$2 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 27 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 27 $5 +$1 +21%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 27 $6 +$1 +9%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m? May 27 $12 +$10 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 27 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 27 $6 +$2 +39%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? May 27 $6 +$3 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% −$798
sports 23% −$566
politics 19% −$301
world 6% −$85
culture 5% −$273
economics 5% −$28
tech 1% −$50
crypto 1% +$19
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 44¢ $8 2h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 64¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 2h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 53¢ $13 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 14h
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY No 53¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $6 20h
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 75¢ $5 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $10 33h
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 98¢ $7 33h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 33h
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 69¢ $8 33h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti SELL No 74¢ $12 39h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $10 45h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY No 83¢ $6 2d
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $7 2d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 88¢ $7 2d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY No 58¢ $10 2d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 54¢ $6 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $5 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 98¢ $18 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 87¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 49¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $5 4d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J SELL No 95¢ $11 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $5 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.2% -18.8% 54% 38% -14.4%
≤30d 64 -4.1% -13.2% 70% 42% -11.8%
≤90d 140 -7.7% -16.5% 60% 40% -13.7%
all 559 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 36% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 36% -22.7%
10% -26.8% 25% -30.1%
15% -33.9% 20% -36.8%
20% -40.3% 15% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.90 · official $81.90 (match) · 1555 history records