Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a05…12a2 sports 281 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,023 (-8%) realized −$22,720 · open −$303
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%132W / 148L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,031per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$4,559est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$692
7 days+$692
14 days+$692
30 days−$1,463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$34,063
crypto 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +86.9% +69.1% 100% 100% +69.1%
≤30d 26 -33.5% -39.8% 38% 35% -29.9%
≤90d 280 -5.9% -14.8% 47% 43% -19.7%
all 280 -5.9% -14.8% 47% 43% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 43% -19.7%
10% -23.0% 38% -27.4%
15% ← realistic here -30.4% 31% -34.4%
20% -37.2% 25% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,181) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$600 vs −$764 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$22,720
Unrealized−$303
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses132 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$4,559
Open positions1
Markets (closed)280 / 281
History coverage78d
Avg bet$1,031
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Flame Team 52¢ 25¢ $580 $278 −$303 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $796 +$692 +87%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ameri Jun 01 $124 −$76 -61%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 01 $19 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 31 $79 +$29 +37%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western May 31 $29 −$16 -56%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner May 31 $253 −$206 -82%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs F9 Team - Game 1 Winner May 31 $172 +$26 +15%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $180 −$178 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $100 +$82 +82%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $67 +$33 +50%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $48 +$17 +36%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $27 +$22 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 27 $11 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 27 $17 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $502 −$495 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $938 −$681 -73%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1,156 +$263 +23%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $567 −$25 -4%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $602 −$498 -83%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $765 +$334 +44%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $358 −$172 -48%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $622 −$65 -10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner May 24 $8 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $493 −$488 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $967 −$883 -91%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 16 $596 +$302 +51%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 16 $395 +$205 +52%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 16 $1,108 −$1,090 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 16 $991 +$501 +50%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $40 −$39 -97%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 15 $550 +$166 +30%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 15 $1,219 −$1,208 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner May 15 $813 −$273 -34%
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 15 $369 −$362 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 15 $1,178 +$786 +67%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 15 $1,144 −$1,134 -99%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $2,176 +$403 +18%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 15 $1,715 +$33 +2%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 15 $936 −$477 -51%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 15 $857 +$481 +56%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 15 $506 −$15 -3%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 15 $962 −$249 -26%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 15 $1,805 −$1,165 -64%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 15 $1,246 −$78 -6%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 15 $1,717 +$967 +56%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 15 $956 −$300 -31%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 15 $1,479 −$6 -0%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 15 $341 −$181 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 31¢ $26 5m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 49¢ $61 30m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 53¢ $101 33m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 57¢ $101 36m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 57¢ $101 36m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 58¢ $6 36m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 55¢ $101 37m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 51¢ $91 38m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 100¢ $387 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 88¢ $132 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 73¢ $110 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 50¢ $75 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 45¢ $68 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 55¢ $82 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 50¢ $75 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 45¢ $68 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 20¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 10¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 19¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 19¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 19¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 18¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 22¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 20¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 19¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 18¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 18¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 29¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 31¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 50¢ $492 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.94 · official $277.94 (match) · 2551 history records