Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5A 0x5a02…5e30 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized +$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate72%28W / 11L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$29
sports 32% +$13
other 28% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +24.6% +12.7% 72% 62% +0.4%
≤30d 39 +24.6% +12.7% 72% 62% +0.4%
≤90d 39 +24.6% +12.7% 72% 62% +0.4%
all 39 +24.6% +12.7% 72% 62% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.7% 62% +0.4%
10% +2.0% 51% -9.2%
15% -7.9% 51% -18.0%
20% -16.9% 44% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses28 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage5d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 57¢ 60¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 65¢ 64¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 39¢ 42¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$23 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$8 +151%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $14 +$9 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $12 +$11 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$10 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18 +$19 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $12 +$11 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$5 +38%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $8 +$5 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$28 +139%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.97 · official $33.97 (match) · 86 history records