Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:21:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a00…77b3 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$17
politics 35% −$13
sports 5% +$2
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 87 -1.1% -10.5% 5% 1% -9.7%
all 114 +1.8% -7.9% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 5% -9.6%
10% -16.7% 4% -18.3%
15% -24.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×8.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage122d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $257 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $213 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $295 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $267 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $289 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? May 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $277 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $285 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $222 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $205 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $234 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $267 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $263 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $253 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $259 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 11h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $38 16d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $38 16d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $227 29d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $228 33d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $257 35d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $257 35d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $213 36d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $213 37d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $270 37d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $270 37d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $213 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 321 history records