Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
59 0x59fe…ab8c other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 77L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$20
politics 27% −$5
sports 7% +$30
economics 5% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 +0.9% -8.8% 8% 5% -9.5%
all 84 +0.9% -8.8% 8% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×12.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 77
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage88d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $204 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $205 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $224 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 04 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $210 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $230 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $424 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $207 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $407 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $428 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $388 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $402 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $419 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $651 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $228 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $61 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $150 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 11d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 11d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 18d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 18d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 19d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 20d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 20d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 28d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 29d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 29d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 29d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 29d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 30d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 30d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 31d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $77 34d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 34d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 34d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $34 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.79 · official $92.79 (match) · 211 history records