Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59fc…38aa crypto 1040 markets active 17h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$275 (-4%) realized −$273 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate75%851W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$242
7 days−$246
14 days−$246
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$46
world 11% −$150
other 6% −$67
sports 5% −$17
politics 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -79.3% -81.3% 13% 11% -76.2%
≤30d 112 -79.3% -81.3% 13% 11% -76.2%
≤90d 919 -12.5% -20.8% 72% 7% -17.2%
all 1132 -10.5% -19.1% 75% 6% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 6% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 2% -24.2%
15% -33.9% 1% -31.5%
20% -40.4% 1% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$273
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses851 / 281
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1132 / 1040
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $18 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Everton vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
AS Roma vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? Jun 17 $2 +$6 +327%
Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -60%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leicester City FC vs. Sheffield United FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2025-12-12? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BSC Young Boys vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
BSC Young Boys vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-26? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
FC Utrecht vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $4 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $4 32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 32h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 92¢ $5 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $4 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $2 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $4 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $0 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $4 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 58¢ $3 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $4 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $4 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 31d
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.22 · official $15.22 (match) · 3500 history records