Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
59 0x59fc…5054 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,946 (+28%) realized +$4,946 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$341est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,819
7 days+$4,838
14 days+$4,679
30 days+$4,833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$4,260
other 8% +$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +20.0% +8.6% 55% 55% +19.5%
≤30d 35 +3.2% -6.6% 40% 40% +15.9%
≤90d 40 -7.3% -16.1% 35% 35% +14.1%
all 40 -7.3% -16.1% 35% 35% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 35% +14.1%
10% -24.1% 32% +3.2%
15% -31.5% 30% -6.8%
20% -38.2% 28% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$612 vs −$153 · ×3.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,946
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$341
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage33d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $354 +$106 +30%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $2,220 +$3,509 +158%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $1,516 +$702 +46%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2,855 −$1,337 -47%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $1,722 +$1,133 +66%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $2,015 −$294 -15%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $1,094 +$921 +84%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer Jun 25 $1,034 −$1,021 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,098 −$63 -6%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,168 +$1,204 +103%
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) Jun 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $74 −$73 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $83 −$9 -10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $139 −$56 -41%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $52 +$87 +169%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $56 −$27 -48%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $26 −$26 -98%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $119 −$117 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $301 +$382 +127%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $111 +$189 +170%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag Jun 05 $15 −$15 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $78 +$84 +107%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 05 $40 −$39 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 05 $18 +$22 +122%
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 04 $55 −$54 -99%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $102 −$48 -47%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $88 +$15 +17%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 01 $186 −$183 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $56 +$131 +234%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $89 −$88 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $160 −$70 -44%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Jun 01 $78 +$82 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $112 −$110 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $34 −$33 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $112 −$110 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic May 25 $27 −$26 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul May 25 $61 −$35 -57%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz May 25 $111 −$50 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp SELL Sandro Kopp 29¢ $459 1h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 22¢ $51 3h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 21¢ $303 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,729 39h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 41h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2,212 41h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $1,935 41h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $56 41h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $10 41h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $10 41h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $48 41h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $10 41h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $148 41h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 67¢ $1,516 42h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $1,518 42h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 44h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,847 44h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 99¢ $600 44h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 99¢ $2,248 44h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 99¢ $6 44h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 58¢ $3 45h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 59¢ $1,719 45h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $1,722 45h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $7 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2,008 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Karolina Muchova 99¢ $107 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Karolina Muchova 99¢ $274 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Karolina Muchova 99¢ $104 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Karolina Muchova 99¢ $172 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Karolina Muchova 99¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records