Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59fb…ecea other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,837 (-7%) realized −$2,093 · open +$256
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%117W / 129L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$133
14 days−$31
30 days−$4,240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$808
politics 22% −$118
sports 17% +$198
world 6% −$268
economics 4% +$182
tech 3% −$429
finance 2% −$102
culture 2% −$325
crypto 2% −$178
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -46.9% -52.0% 50% 17% -27.8%
≤30d 95 -81.3% -83.1% 9% 5% -63.5%
≤90d 109 -41.5% -47.1% 20% 17% -45.3%
all 246 +13.9% +3.1% 48% 38% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 38% -17.9%
10% -6.8% 31% -25.7%
15% -15.8% 25% -32.9%
20% -24.1% 22% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +59% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$62 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$2,078
Realized−$2,093
Unrealized+$256
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses117 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)246 / 257
History coverage581d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 55¢ $523 $823 +$301 (+58%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 88¢ $450 $438 −$12 (-3%)
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? No 50¢ 46¢ $292 $274 −$18 (-6%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 50¢ $200 $170 −$29 (-15%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 50¢ $98 $101 +$4 (+4%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 60¢ $57 $74 +$16 (+28%)
Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 59¢ $66 $59 −$7 (-11%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 24¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 62¢ $31 $35 +$4 (+14%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 22¢ $44 $29 −$15 (-34%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 34¢ $18 $27 +$9 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $140 +$24 +17%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Netherlands Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $355 +$3 +1%
Will Keito Nakamura score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $138 −$136 -98%
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $71 +$2 +4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $39 +$101 +255%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $55 +$47 +86%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" in Maine? May 25 $64 +$6 +10%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the announceme May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Climate" during NYC rally? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Memphis Roundtable? May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Historic" during the Board of Peace Charter Announceme May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Triangle" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2? May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on Nov May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "F-35" during Saudi PM events on November 18? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Miami address? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 18-24? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the announcers say "Dana White" during Strickland vs. Hernandez? May 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the announcers say "Championship" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2? May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Affordability" in Corpus Christi on Friday? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Accord" during the Board of Peace Charter Announcement May 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "America First" during Miami address? May 24 $51 −$30 -58%
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during the 2026 State of the Un May 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the announcers say "Strategy" during Strickland vs. Hernandez? May 24 $44 −$16 -36%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during the 2026 State of the Union address? May 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" during NYC May 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Border" during the next White House Press Briefing? May 24 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Trump say "UFC" during the 2026 State of the Union address? May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? May 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bryan Johnson say "Mushroom" 10+ times while tripping balls? May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Macron" or "France" during events with Rutte? May 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "107 Days" on Jimmy Kimmel Live? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Movie star" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? May 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the announcers say "Toyota" during Strickland vs. Hernandez? May 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Leavitt say "ICE" or "National Guard" during the next White House May 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? May 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Genius" during tech signing event on Wednesday? May 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-13? May 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump say "Thank" 10+ times at Christmas Tree Lighting on Decembe May 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bryan Johnson say "Depression" while tripping balls? May 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump say "ID" or "Identification" during Memphis Roundtable? May 24 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Tariff" during the next White House Press Briefing? May 24 $112 −$112 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5? May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? May 24 $56 −$29 -52%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-15? May 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 45¢ $23 1h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 47¢ $38 1h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 45¢ $50 1h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 46¢ $41 1h
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $145 8h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $89 9h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $12 10h
Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $66 13h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 60¢ $21 15h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 60¢ $60 15h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 48¢ $21 15h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 48¢ $1 15h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 48¢ $2 15h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 48¢ $38 15h
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $8 21h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Netherlands BUY No 41¢ $4 22h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $451 23h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $256 34h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 34h
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $19 40h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 47h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $21 2d
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $25 2d
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 2d
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 2d
Will Keito Nakamura score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $2 6d
Will Keito Nakamura score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $0 6d
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $140 6d
Will Keito Nakamura score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,077.69 · official $2,077.69 (match) · 1231 history records