Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59fa…ad3c other 1696 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$379 (+1%) realized +$396 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%665W / 926L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day61.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$294
14 days+$404
30 days+$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 71% +$36
crypto 19% +$518
other 6% +$71
sports 3% +$28
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 +23.7% +11.9% 66% 32% -6.7%
≤30d 601 +19.7% +8.3% 56% 33% -6.9%
≤90d 1591 +3.0% -6.9% 42% 32% -7.6%
all 1591 +3.0% -6.9% 42% 32% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 32% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 30% -16.4%
15% -23.9% 27% -24.5%
20% -31.4% 26% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,435
Realized+$396
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses665 / 926
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1591 / 1696
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $156 $156 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $121 $121 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $84 $71 −$13 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $48 $56 +$8 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $23 $11 −$12 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 2AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? Jun 29 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 29? Jun 29 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C or below on June 29? Jun 29 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 29? Jun 29 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 29? Jun 29 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 29? Jun 29 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 29? Jun 29 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 29? Jun 29 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 29? Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$1 -22%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 11AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$15 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET Jun 29 $18 +$12 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$8 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$7 +30%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$6 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$4 +525%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Jun 29 $29 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28? Jun 29 $300 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$11 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$16 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$19 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET Jun 28 $39 −$9 -22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$6 +181%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$20 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $121 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $156 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $200 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $69 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $200 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $300 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $275 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $25 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 11AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $9 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,434.59 · official $1,434.71 (match) · 3500 history records