Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

59 0x59f8…70cc other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$565 (-59%) realized −$580 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip

Net edge-70%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$190per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 600d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-70.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-59.2%	-63.1%	0%	0%	-50.9%
≤30d	2	-59.2%	-63.1%	0%	0%	-50.9%
≤90d	2	-59.2%	-63.1%	0%	0%	-50.9%
all	4	-67.3%	-70.4%	0%	0%	-67.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-70.4%	0%	-67.0%
10%	-73.2%	0%	-70.1%
15%	-75.8%	0%	-73.0%
20%	-78.2%	0%	-75.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -46% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -67% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$143 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage

Net worth$65

Realized−$580

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage600d

Avg bet$190

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$50	$65	+$15 (+30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-97%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$99	−$18	-18%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Nov 15	$247	−$247	-100%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?	Nov 15	$502	−$255	-51%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	3¢	$51	4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$81	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$99	4d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	BUY Yes	29¢	$247	585d
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?	SELL Yes	29¢	$247	585d
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?	BUY Yes	59¢	$453	599d
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?	BUY Yes	58¢	$50	599d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.00 · official $65.00 (match) · 9 history records