Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59f5…dcae other 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$109 (-13%) realized −$107 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%28W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$45
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$129
crypto 16% −$13
sports 16% +$10
politics 1% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -33.5% -39.8% 23% 20% -21.9%
≤30d 102 -16.0% -24.0% 16% 15% -28.8%
≤90d 170 -16.8% -24.8% 16% 16% -25.1%
all 170 -16.8% -24.8% 16% 16% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 16% -25.1%
10% -32.0% 16% -32.2%
15% -38.5% 15% -38.8%
20% -44.6% 15% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses28 / 142
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage37d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$8 +388%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Guatemala end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$8 +408%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 26h
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 33h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 37h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 6d
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.83 · official $57.83 (match) · 229 history records