Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59f4…c1f1 sports 480 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,764 (+0%) realized +$2,830 · open −$1,066
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%190W / 288L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,356per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$7,332est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 237d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$26,422
other 3% +$39,409
world 1% −$11,300
politics 0% −$4,884
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +38.2% +25.0% 45% 45% +29.2%
≤30d 102 +8.5% -1.8% 42% 42% -6.0%
≤90d 317 -36.4% -42.5% 25% 25% -31.1%
all 478 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 40% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 40% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 40% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 38% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 37% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$3,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,302 vs −$2,186 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$1,227
Realized+$2,830
Unrealized−$1,066
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses190 / 288
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$7,332
Open positions2
Markets (closed)478 / 480
History coverage237d
Avg bet$2,356
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 46¢ $1,500 $975 −$525 (-35%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 44¢ 14¢ $793 $252 −$541 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $2,011 −$1,978 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $2,697 −$2,654 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1,258 +$2,718 +216%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $1,417 +$3,208 +226%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $2,035 +$2,727 +134%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,118 +$11,190 +183%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11,489 −$11,300 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,533 −$1,500 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,540 −$1,500 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,079 +$7,673 +188%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $1,525 −$1,500 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $1,529 −$1,500 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,026 −$1,000 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,984 +$12,332 +413%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1,992 +$3,437 +172%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2,000 +$3,939 +197%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,548 −$1,520 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,099 +$1,470 +134%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $1,802 −$1,776 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,991 −$1,944 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $1,597 −$1,570 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $685 +$482 +70%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $3,401 −$3,340 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,990 +$2,092 +105%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) Jun 06 $2,020 −$2,000 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $2,355 −$2,300 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $2,552 −$2,500 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $2,897 +$3,436 +119%
Tyler: Landon Ardila vs Timo Legout Jun 05 $2,953 +$1,543 +52%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $1,965 +$2,429 +124%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2,718 +$5,315 +196%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $2,040 −$2,000 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $2,541 +$3,014 +119%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $507 −$500 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $2,034 −$2,000 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $2,448 +$3,024 +124%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 03 $1,564 +$2,946 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $4,469 −$4,400 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1,932 +$2,486 +129%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $1,227 −$1,200 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $984 +$1,318 +134%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,708 +$3,218 +188%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $986 +$1,702 +172%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 01 $1,506 −$1,480 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $3,047 −$3,000 -98%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 01 $1,695 +$3,840 +226%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $2,097 −$2,063 -98%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Aidan Mayo May 29 $1,952 −$1,913 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 54¢ $2,273 26m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $34 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $2 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $519 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $8 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $230 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $28 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $24 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $815 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $1,017 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,513 1h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 46¢ $2,011 13h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 43¢ $2,550 13h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 43¢ $147 13h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 30¢ $1,417 18h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 31¢ $1,258 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,864 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $752 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $2,248 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $3,552 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,029 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $3,043 28h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $1,533 28h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 12¢ $1,540 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $11,753 28h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 42¢ $2,035 30h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $1,525 30h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $1,529 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $4,079 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $2,040 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,227.42 · official $1,227.42 (match) · 1614 history records