Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
59 0x59ee…6150 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 721d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,561 (+11%) realized +$1,594 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate17%11W / 54L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$852now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$249
7 days+$665
14 days+$665
30 days+$665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% +$2,130
other 27% +$720
crypto 17% −$368
world 5% +$181
tech 3% −$470
sports 2% −$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.3% -2.0% 38% 38% +29.5%
≤30d 8 +8.3% -2.0% 38% 38% +29.5%
≤90d 30 -51.1% -55.8% 17% 17% +6.5%
all 65 -41.7% -47.2% 17% 15% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 15% +3.8%
10% -52.3% 14% -6.1%
15% -56.9% 14% -15.2%
20% -61.1% 14% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$428 vs −$50 · ×8.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

721d coverage
Net worth$852
Realized+$1,594
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses11 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)65 / 73
History coverage721d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $500 $542 +$42 (+8%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $250 $256 +$6 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-38%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-62%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-83%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Over 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $164 +$179 +109%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $100 −$27 -27%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $153 +$419 +274%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $83 −$37 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $758 +$416 +55%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Apr 05 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $500 +$318 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -93%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 28 $75 −$57 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 27 $40 +$135 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 20 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 20 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$42 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Éric Lombard be the next Prime Minister of France? Oct 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bruno Retailleau be the next Prime Minister of France? Oct 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will $SPX be the next coin listed on Robinhood? Mar 22 $10 +$1 +15%
Will $ARC be the next coin listed on Coinbase? Mar 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will $AI16Z be the next coin listed on Coinbase? Mar 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will $BNKR be the next coin listed on Coinbase? Mar 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Mar 09 $500 −$470 -94%
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC? Mar 09 $300 −$275 -92%
Will $HIGHER be the next coin listed on Coinbase? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will $AIXBT be the next coin listed on Coinbase? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Gaethje vs. Fiziev Mar 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump say 'Ukraine' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday? Mar 01 $250 −$40 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Over 4¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 21¢ $26 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $342 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $164 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 5¢ $26 14h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $73 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 26¢ $153 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $46 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $253 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 2d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 72d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? BUY No 1¢ $50 72d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $55 73d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $818 74d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 79d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 79d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $500 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 79d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 79d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 80d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 80d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 80d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 80d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $500 80d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $851.56 · official $876.56 · 214 history records