Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
59 0x59ea…afc5 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$763 (+8%) realized +$763 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate44%37W / 47L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$4
14 days+$127
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$8
other 24% +$659
finance 15% −$2
crypto 13% +$127
sports 6% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -22.2% -29.6% 42% 37% -10.4%
≤30d 37 -7.6% -16.4% 51% 35% +3.8%
≤90d 62 -14.5% -22.6% 45% 27% +11.6%
all 84 -11.6% -20.0% 44% 23% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 23% -2.2%
10% -27.6% 21% -11.6%
15% -34.6% 19% -20.1%
20% -41.0% 18% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$9 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$763
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses37 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage98d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$12 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $71 +$64 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $78 +$67 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $44 +$90 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$37 +93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $86 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $6 −$2 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $24 +$5 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $27 −$8 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $19 +$9 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $760 +$6 +1%
Will Linda McMahon be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? May 28 $7 −$3 -52%
Will Scott Bessent be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? May 27 $1 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $711 +$637 +90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $455 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 13 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 02 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 30 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $19 −$11 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $59 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $78 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $44 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $60 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $40 12d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $86 21d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $52 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records