Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59e9…1010 crypto 463 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$602 (+1%) realized +$653 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate92%425W / 35L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$7
14 days+$27
30 days+$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$733
sports 17% −$282
other 8% −$126
tech 0% +$1
world 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.7% -10.1% 94% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 56 +1.2% -8.5% 96% 7% -7.7%
≤90d 404 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 10% -8.9%
all 460 -0.7% -10.2% 92% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 11% -9.1%
10% -18.7% 5% -17.8%
15% -26.6% 3% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$117 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized+$653
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses425 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions3
Markets (closed)460 / 463
History coverage150d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 94¢ $224 $221 −$4 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $220 +$5 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $211 +$9 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $203 +$8 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $191 +$12 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $175 +$17 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $164 +$10 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $152 +$13 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $141 +$10 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $134 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $118 +$7 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $112 +$6 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $103 +$9 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $115 +$7 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $113 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $104 +$9 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $96 +$8 +8%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $94 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $389 +$8 +2%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $333 +$57 +17%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $302 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 May 27 $288 +$28 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI (+2.5) May 25 $846 +$369 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 25 $560 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 25 $566 +$90 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 25 $560 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 25 $560 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 25 $560 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 25 $560 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 25 $551 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 25 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 25 $551 +$13 +2%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 0.5 May 24 $591 +$109 +18%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 May 24 $576 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 24 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 24 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 24 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 24 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 24 $501 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 24 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 24 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 24 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 24 $500 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $225 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $225 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $220 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $211 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $211 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $203 29h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $191 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $175 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $164 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $152 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $141 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $134 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $118 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $118 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $112 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $103 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $122 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $115 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $113 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $104 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $96 10d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $94 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 14d
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $389 15d
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $333 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $302 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.89 · official $372.89 (match) · 976 history records