Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
59 0x59e8…b8f7 crypto 1023 markets active 0h ago coverage 200d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 200d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,072 (-3%) realized −$2,087 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate60%842W / 570L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 200d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$290
crypto 37% +$1,423
other 2% +$4
tech 2% +$34
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 464 -85.1% -86.6% 12% 7% -39.9%
≤30d 507 -77.4% -79.6% 18% 10% -25.7%
≤90d 511 -76.7% -78.9% 18% 11% -25.1%
all 1412 -29.8% -36.5% 60% 16% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 16% -13.5%
10% -42.6% 10% -21.8%
15% -48.1% 8% -29.4%
20% -53.2% 7% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$29 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$2,087
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses842 / 570
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1412 / 1023
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 11AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 4AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 6PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 1PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 10PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 6AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 2PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 10PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 7AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 1PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 11AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 6PM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 11AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 10AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 6PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 5AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12AM ET Jun 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 8PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 6AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 26¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $306 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $152 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.24 · official $145.24 (match) · 3500 history records