Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59e7…d71d world 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
politics 14% −$6
other 14% $0
sports 14% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 62 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage306d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $49 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $35 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $75 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $76 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $18 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 27 $3 $0 +2%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $32 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 25 $42 −$6 -14%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $38 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 23 $1 $0 +13%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 20 $6 −$2 -26%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 19 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $42 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $11 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $6 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $25 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $42 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $6 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $33 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $40 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $28 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $32 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records