trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $88 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $44 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 11 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $17 | +$2 | +12% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $78 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $44 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 03 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 03 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 24 | $14 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | Apr 24 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 24 | $15 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 03 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Mar 25 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Mar 24 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on March 19? | Mar 22 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 20 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 45% | 9% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 40% | 7% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 40% | 7% | -9.3% |
| all | 26 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 58% | 4% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 4% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -17.4% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -33.1% |