Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
59 0x59e2…fb31 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$1
politics 31% +$4
world 27% $0
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 22% 0% -9.5%
all 35 +0.0% -9.5% 51% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 6% -9.0%
10% -18.2% 3% -17.7%
15% -26.1% 3% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage429d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $31 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $83 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $32 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $29 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $85 +$3 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $13 +$1 +5%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $4 $0 -5%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $4 $0 +11%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania May 07 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $76 +$1 +1%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador Apr 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -63%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 26 $71 −$1 -2%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross more than $31m on opening weekend? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will KSI win the match? Apr 24 $69 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 24 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $82 +$1 +1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 21 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $30 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $31 10h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $28 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $14 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $14 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $28 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $1 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $28 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $28 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $2 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $29 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $32 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $29 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $29 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $22 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.93 · official $28.21 (match) · 126 history records