Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59e2…1c55 sports 343 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$816 (+1%) realized +$956 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%124W / 218L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Fees−$950est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$13,800
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -41.9% -47.4% 29% 29% -43.2%
≤30d 174 -34.0% -40.3% 36% 32% -33.0%
≤90d 342 -33.4% -39.8% 36% 31% -34.0%
all 342 -33.4% -39.8% 36% 31% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.8% 31% -34.0%
10% ← realistic here -45.5% 27% -40.3%
15% -50.8% 19% -46.1%
20% -55.6% 14% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$101 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$956
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses124 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$950
Open positions1
Markets (closed)342 / 343
History coverage52d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Spirit Academy 48¢ 0¢ $141 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $307 +$187 +61%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $109 −$109 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $237 +$59 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $149 +$151 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $78 −$20 -25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $44 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $734 −$313 -43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $28 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $168 −$111 -66%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $296 −$202 -68%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $23 +$7 +32%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$13 -66%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $47 −$14 -29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $590 −$490 -83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$8 -61%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $90 +$60 +68%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $188 +$42 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 +$14 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $73 −$21 -29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $90 −$47 -52%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$24 +122%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $56 +$44 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $112 −$31 -28%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $156 −$8 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $279 −$182 -65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $481 −$11 -2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $85 +$165 +194%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $404 −$127 -32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $239 −$56 -23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $549 −$243 -44%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $96 −$65 -68%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $298 −$7 -2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $232 +$117 +50%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $282 −$97 -35%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $103 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $235 −$180 -76%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $133 −$4 -3%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $45 −$5 -10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $502 −$155 -31%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $280 −$120 -43%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $193 −$48 -25%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $145 −$42 -29%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $106 +$39 +37%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $667 −$362 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Hive 100¢ $100 1m
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 48¢ $44 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 50¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 50¢ $35 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 50¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 47¢ $38 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 47¢ $47 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 89¢ $334 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 89¢ $111 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 37¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 50¢ $49 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 49¢ $99 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $152 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 55¢ $55 1h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 56¢ $16 4h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 56¢ $40 4h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 53¢ $53 4h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 48¢ $0 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 48¢ $46 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $24 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $2 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $29 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 39¢ $39 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 63¢ $63 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 33¢ $33 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $300 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 70¢ $70 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 44¢ $44 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 35¢ $30 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 35¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 2665 history records