Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x59dd…d470 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 856d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$20 (+11%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$12
sports 16% +$15
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +32.4% +19.8% 31% 23% +7.2%
≤30d 13 +32.4% +19.8% 31% 23% +7.2%
≤90d 13 +32.4% +19.8% 31% 23% +7.2%
all 18 +2.8% -7.0% 28% 22% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 22% +5.6%
10% -15.9% 22% -4.5%
15% -24.0% 17% -13.8%
20% -31.5% 17% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

856d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage856d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $123 +$10 +8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 +$7 +661%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +403%
Super Bowl: Taylor Swift shown more than 5 times? Feb 12 $1 $0 +28%
Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Half Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Super Bowl LVIII: Will the 49ers win by between 3 and 6 points? Feb 11 $0 $0 -100%
Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Half Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records