Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59dc…2a03 crypto 708 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,219 (+6%) realized +$3,226 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%340W / 356L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$348est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$790
crypto 22% +$59
other 16% −$977
world 12% +$821
politics 4% −$160
finance 1% −$16
weather 0% −$88
economics 0% −$7
culture 0% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +17.8% +6.5% 42% 38% -12.3%
≤30d 375 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 32% -12.1%
≤90d 393 -0.8% -10.3% 36% 32% -12.1%
all 696 -2.7% -12.0% 49% 38% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 38% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 27% -20.0%
15% -28.1% 25% -27.8%
20% -35.1% 22% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$47 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$819
Realized+$3,226
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses340 / 356
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$348
Open positions7
Markets (closed)696 / 708
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$74
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 696 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $756 $767 +$11 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $11 $2 −$10 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $11 +$7 +60%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $56 −$17 -30%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $57 +$14 +25%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $820 −$816 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $129 −$129 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $280 −$280 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $82 −$82 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $339 −$339 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $250 −$246 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $70 +$29 +41%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 +$70 +233%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $192 −$192 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $215 −$215 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $348 −$348 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $70 +$30 +43%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $53 +$146 +275%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $328 +$31 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $41 +$159 +389%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $53 +$399 +752%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $286 −$184 -64%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $201 +$299 +149%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $73 +$261 +358%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $236 +$289 +122%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $310 +$262 +85%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $230 +$370 +161%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $185 +$115 +62%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $324 −$323 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $105 +$108 +103%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $129 −$98 -76%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $162 +$87 +54%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $370 −$370 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$120 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $619 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $39 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $40 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $71 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $171 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $135 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $14 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $200 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $129 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $0 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $9 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $180 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $100 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $300 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $250 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $150 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 9¢ $6 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 9¢ $21 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $23 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $22 5h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $8 6h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 6h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $53 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $7 6h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $26 6h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 6h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $32 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $108 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $819.26 · official $819.26 (match) · 3500 history records