Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
59 0x59d9…54bd politics 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$7
other 31% −$4
crypto 11% −$1
world 7% −$2
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$729) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage95d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,212 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $1,247 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 25 $1,204 −$1 -0%
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 25 $26 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $61 $0 -0%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom May 20 $105 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? May 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 14 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? May 13 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 13 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 01 $128 $0 -0%
Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Apr 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $117 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Mar 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 23 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $74 12m
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,210 42m
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $23 50m
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,151 56m
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $855 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $347 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,204 2h
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 100¢ $26 18h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $61 19h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 19h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 19h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 19h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $28 19h
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 100¢ $26 19h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 20h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $314 20h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 20h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,195 20h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL No 99¢ $105 36d
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY No 99¢ $87 36d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 36d
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY No 99¢ $18 36d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $15 36d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records